Date Published 07 March 2016
This week I was presented with a query from a certain Marylebone Landlord who owns a number of properties in the area, he asked me how I would judge the current rate of property growth in Marylebone and how this will look in the foreseeable future. I responded to his request by reassuring him that Marylebone is in a very strong position currently and has been for some time now, I also said that property prices were definitely headed in the right direction as well as being well on the rise. In order to illustrate this point to him further I decided to uncover some figures for him, gather the readings of the past 10 years and ultimately make a prediction based on recent trends of how the Marylebone property market should look like in the next 5 years – by 2021! In this article I will present to you my findings, where I took 4 different streets and used 2 as well as 3 bedroom flats as my focus points. I shall be analysing the growth of value for 2 and 3 bedroom flats, how they have fared in the last two 5 year periods and ultimately what the expectation should be for the next, future 5 year period.
Capital Growth for 2 bedroom flats
Devonshire Street (W1G)
Average Purchase Price in 2005: £319,285 - Average Market Price in 2010: £611,666 (Capital Growth = 65.5%)
Average Purchase Price in 2011: 671,000 - Average Market Price in 2016: £1,321,153 (Capital Growth = 68%)
Average Growth rate of both 5 year periods: 66.75% - Difference of Capital Growth = +2.5%
Predicted average growth between 2016 – 2021 = 69.25% - (13.85% annually)
Predicted growth between 2016 – 2021 based on current trends= 70.5% - (14.1% annually)
Crawford Street (W1H)
Average Purchase Price in 2005: £433,750 - Average Market Price in 2010: £706,785 (Capital Growth = 49%)
Average Purchase Price in 2011: £786,056- Average Market Price in 2016: £1,368,727 (Capital Growth = 55.5%)
Average Growth of both 5 year periods: 52.25% - Difference of Capital Growth = +6.5%
Predicted average growth between 2016 – 2021 = 58.75% - (11.75% annually)
Predicted growth between 2016 – 2021 based on current trends= 62% - (12.4% annually)
Capital Growth for 3 bedroom flats
Seymour Place (W1H):
Average Purchase Price in 2005: £604,246 - Average Market Price in 2010: £914,500 (Capital Growth = 41.5%)
Average Purchase Price in 2011: £986,000 - Average Market Price in 2016: £1,652,750 (Capital Growth = 52%)
Average Growth of both 5 year periods: 46.75% - Difference of Capital Growth = +10.5%
Predicted average growth between 2016 – 2021 = 57.25% - (11.45% annually)
Predicted growth between 2016 – 2021 based on current trends= 62.5% - (12.5% annually)
Chiltern Street (W1U)
Average Purchase Price in 2005: £647,909 - Average Market Price in 2010: £1,176,875 (Capital Growth = 60%)
Average Purchase Price in 2011: £1,253,725 - Average Market Price in 2016: £2,385,883 (Capital Growth = 64.5%)
Average Growth of both 5 year periods: 62.25% - Difference of Capital Growth = +4.5%
Predicted average growth between 2016 – 2021 = 66.75% - (13.35% annually)
Predicted growth between 2016 – 2021 based on current trends= 69% - (13.8% annually)
From these results, we can see that the predicted growth of both 2 as well as 3 bedroom properties in Marylebone looks very healthy and should these trends continue, you can be looking at a very beneficial investment on your hands, whether you decide to invest in either of these property types.
We see that for 2 bedroom properties, the predicted growth is slightly higher for Devonshire Street than it is for Crawford Street, but this is very much based on past trends and the values have been taken from the street as a whole and on average, thus particular investments could vary. When we combine our predicted growth for both Devonshire Street and Crawford Street, we get an average capital growth of 66.25% (13.25% annually) for 2 bedroom properties heading into the upcoming 2016-2021 five year period. Regarding 3 bedroom properties, we see that the predicted growth for 2016 and onwards is slightly higher with Chiltern Street, compared to Seymour Place, but both streets offer very promising growth rates and individual investment endeavours could vary either way, but on average these predictions I believe you should be expecting. In addition, when we combine the growth rates of both Chiltern Street and Seymour Place, we get an average capital growth of around 65.75% (13.15% annually); this is a very positive prospective growth rate for 3 bedroom properties as a whole and can certainly fill us with optimism for the future. As you would have noticed 2 and 3 bedrooms are very closely matched and their capital growths are very similar with 2 bedroom properties only marginally expected to outgrow 3 bedroom properties by 0.5%. Marylebone is growing stronger with every year and with it growth rates are certainly increasing, this current moment is a very good time to invest with amazing growth rates expected in the near future. Watch your investment property grow in value and in the coming years the financial rewards could be lucrative; the price you purchase your property at today will undoubtedly soar in value and you could be looking at a very profitable account sooner rather than later!
As usual with any of my articles or deal of the days, if you would like any more detailed information or a more personal estimation of your investment ventures, please feel free to get in touch with me and I will certainly aim to point you in the right direction at the very least.